Change how you change

Backcasting is an innovation and planning framework that is based on the principle of imagining a desirable future and then “working backwards” to create the steps to get there.

Backcasting is specifically used for imagining futures that do not currently exist, with the goal of sparking outside-the-box thinking and creative problem solving.

Backcasting sounds similar to reverse engineering, in that both processes involve working backwards from a desired end state. The major difference between the two processes is that Backcasting focuses on innovation outcomes that do not currently exist—and therefore require an inner or emotional shift in mindset.

It’s the difference between taking apart an alarm clock and then putting the pieces back together—”reverse engineering”—and inventing a rover that can navigate Jupiter. The second problem requires an attitude towards the impossible which is just as essential as the math, science and technical skills required to engineer the solution.

Backcasting elevates traditional strategic planning in two key ways. First, traditional strategic planning deals in probabilities and likelihoods. Backcasting is about impossible results. Consider the company Netflix from the perspective of its one-time competitor, Blockbuster. From Blockbuster’s perspective, what Netflix was trying to do was impossible.

Second, traditional strategic planning thinks about the future as a goal to be achieved. Progress towards the future is measured in “milestones” that give managers and executives data about whether the process is “on track”. By contrast, Backcasting is an ongoing dialogue between the future and present that allows leaders to adapt and shift along with the circumstances.

A good analogy here is the difference between navigating the subway map of Tokyo—a project that requires traditional linear planning—and navigating a long-distance hiking path through the wilderness, which will require continuous re-evaluation of goals and direction based on weather, physical strength, supplies, etc.

In traditional planning, the plan and the change management are everything. People either get on board or get out. As a “narrative structure”, this creates a certain rigidness in attitude that can result in burnout, especially when the unpredictable happens.

Backcasting is one important step in shifting the narrative, especially during times of uncertainty. Backcasting allows leaders the freedom to shift and change along with extenuating circumstances without having to label projects as failures—or labeling themselves as flip-floppers. Instead, a shift in orientation can open up creative possibility and get people to buy-in, even when the final goals or outcomes are uncertain. Many popular leaders across technology, business, and even politics have adopted the Backcasting philosophy of setting a visionary goal and adapting the narrative continuously along the way.

Backcasting is an imagination framework. As a result, it requires that leaders allow themselves outside the box so they can use creativity to its full potential—both in themselves and others. In order to do so, they must address blockages to creative thinking which are often lodged in their emotions.

Discovery helps leaders by uncovering these emotional blockages and providing concrete, practical solutions for liberating this essential creative energy. Especially when change is stuck and problem solving is cycling through the same options repeatedly, Discovery can provide novel, even unprecedented solutions that may have not been considered by executive teams.

At the end of Discovery, we provide 3 change programs that show executives how to get things moving again. Specifically, these 3 programs address:

1. What do stop doing

2. What to start doing

3. How to move faster

We carefully structure these solutions to provide options that an executive team can implement on their own, as well as other options that require our further guidance.

There is no set pattern—the next steps are based on what is revealed through Discovery.